哈尔滨市南岗区2006～2015年消化系统恶性肿瘤发病、死亡趋势分析及预测

Trend in Incidence and Mortality of Gastrointestinal Cancer in Nangang from 2006 to 2015

目的:本研究旨在分析哈尔滨市南岗区消化系统恶性肿瘤发病、死亡情况,估计其未来发展趋势,为癌症预防和控制措施的制定和实施提供科学依据。方法:2006~2015年发病、死亡数据来源于南岗区疾控中心肿瘤登记点,计算不同时间、性别的粗率和标化率,年度变化趋势采用Joinpoint软件分析,采用BAMP的年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型预测未来趋势。结果:2006~2015年南岗区食管癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、肝癌和胰腺癌世界标化发病率和死亡率分别为3.70/10万、13.32/10万、20.84/10万、15.46/10万、5.06/10万和3.41/10万、10.14/10万、13.36/10万、16.19/10万、6.11/10万,男性食管癌、胃癌和女性胃癌、肝癌标化发病率呈显著下降趋势,男女结直肠癌标化发病率呈显著上升趋势;男性食管癌和肝癌标化死亡率呈显著下降趋势。估计2020年男女消化系统恶性肿瘤世界标化发病率将分别达到146.11/10万、52.24/10万,死亡率将分别达到82.62/10万、36.58/10万。结论:哈尔滨市南岗区消化系统恶性肿瘤流行形势较为严峻,有待通过综合措施加强消化系统恶性肿瘤防控。

Objective： To analyze the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors in digestive system in Nangang District,to estimate its trend,and to provide scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of cancer prevention and control. Methods： The data were obtained from the Cancer Registry in Center for Disease Prevention and Control（ CDC） in Nangang between 2006 and 2015. Crude incidence/mortality rates（ CI/MRs） and age-standardized incidence/mortality rates（ ASI/MRs） were calculated,and annual variation was estimated by JOINPOINT for long term trend analysis. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to predict the incidence between 2016 and 2020. Results： During the study period,the ASIs for esophageal,gastric,colorectal,liver and pancreatic cancer were 3. 70/10~5,13. 32/10~5,20. 84/10~5,15. 46/10~5,and 5. 06/10~5 respectively,and the MRs for the above five cancers were 3. 41/10~5,10. 14/10~5,13. 36/10~5,16. 19/10~5,and 6. 11/10~5 respectively. The ASI significantly decreased in males with esophageal and gastric cancer,and in females with gastric and liver cancer. The ASI significantly increased in patients with colorectal cancer. The MRs significantly decreased in males with esophageal and liver cancer. Being predicted by Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian model,it was estimated that,in 2020,the ASIs of malignant digestive system tumors would reach 146. 11/10~5 and 52. 24/10~5 in males and females respectively,and the MRs would reach 82. 62/10~5 and 36. 58/10~5 in males and females with malignant tumors in digestive system,respectively. Conclusions： In Nangang,there is a growing trend in the prevalence of malignant tumors in digestive system. Comprehensive measures are needed to strengthen the prevention and control of malignant tumors in digestive system.