新常态下中国经济长期增长与短期波动的动态解析

Analyzing the Sources of China's Economic Growth and Fluctuations under the New Normality

以强可持续为视角,基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,将金融结构、产业结构、政府干预和对外开放程度通过全要素生产率纳入经济增长核算框架,并结合物质资本、人力资本、能源消耗和环境损耗,对中国1981—2014年间经济的长期增长与短期波动进行动态解析。研究发现,金融结构与经济增长呈"U"型关系,产业结构和对外开放与经济增长呈倒"U"型关系;物质资本和能源消耗依旧是中国经济增长的重要推动力,而人力资本和全要素生产率贡献较小,环境损耗不利于经济增长;虽然全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献较小,但却是经济波动的重要来源。

Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and from the perspective of strong sustainability,this article introduces the financial structure,industrial structure,government intervention and opening-up degree into the framework of economic growth. We analyze the growth power and fluctuations of China’s economy between 1981 and 2014 together with the human capital,physical capital,energy consumption and the environmental pollution. It finds that the openness and industrial structure shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with the economic growth,while financial structure shows a U-shaped relationship with the economic growth. Presently,China’s economic growth mainly depends on physical capital and energy consumption,while the contribution of human capital and total factor productivity are small,and the environment-related economic growth is negative. However,the total factor productivity is an important source of economic fluctuations.