PPP模式下棕地开发项目的实物期权价值研究

Research on Real Option Value of Brownfield Development Project under the PPP Mode

PPP模式下棕地开发项目具有高成本、高风险、高不确定性等特点,传统的项目评估方法对棕地开发项目进行评估局限性过大。为合理评估棕地项目价值,文章结合实物期权的内涵和典型特征,对PPP模式下棕地开发项目进行识别与梳理,构建了实物期权价值评估的二叉树模型,并将两期二叉树模型推广到多期二叉树模型,采用递推方法对模型进行求解。最后,运用实物期权二叉树方法对上海青浦HS涂料厂棕地开发PPP项目的投资价值进行评估,并与传统的NPV方法比较,实验结果表明模型是有效及合理的,以期为棕地开发项目的投资决策分析提供参考,推动棕地项目的开发进程。

Brownfield development project has the characteristics of high cost, high risk and high uncertainty. Due to those characteristics, the traditional investment value methods are very limited to assess the investment value of brownfield development projects. Thus, in order to reasonably assess the value of brownfield projects, this research fully combines the typical characteristics and meaning of real options to identify and card the brownfield development project under PPP mode, and then build value evaluation real option of binary tree model, and extend the two period binomial tree model to multi- period, at the same time recursive method was adopted to solve the mode. Finally, the real option method of binary tree is applied to evaluate the investment value of Shanghai Qingpu HS factory＇s brownfield development project, compared with traditional NPV method. The results show that the model is valid and reasonable, so as to provide a reference for investment decision and to push forward the process of brownfield development project.