全球治理视角下的粮食贸易风险分析

Analysis of Food Trade Risk from Perspective of Global Governance

学术界对于粮食安全问题的研究更多集中在"粮食供应量"和"购买能力"这两个问题的研究上,对于粮食供应"及时性"的关注却很少。随着全球粮食贸易的快速增长,粮食获得的"及时性"势必将在未来不断地影响全球粮食安全,而粮食的国际贸易依赖于一个全球性的运输网络系统,这个运输网络的畅通无阻对于粮食获得的"及时性"至关重要。本文从粮食贸易路线中少量的出口和周转中心出发,研究这些关键节点面临的中断或阻塞风险,并以全球治理的视角分析暴露于这些关键节点中断或阻塞风险的国家特征,这对于中国粮食进口安全具有重大的现实意义。

Food security study has mainly focused on ＂food supply＂ and＂purchasing power＂ rather than the ＂timeliness＂ of food supply. With the rapid growth of global food trade, the ＂timeliness＂ of food supply will be more important to global food security. The international trade of food depends on a global transportation network whose smooth operation is critical to ensuring ＂timeliness＂. This paper studies the interruption or congestion risks faced by the key points along the trade routes and analyzes the characteristics of countries exposed to such risks. This study has great practical significance for China’s grain import security.