Burgess推论成立吗——服务贸易差额扩大恶化货物贸易条件的跨国实证

Does Burgess's Inference Really Hold: A Cross-Country Analysis

根据Burgess的推论:一方面,服务贸易自由化会通过技术转移削弱货物贸易国之间的比较优势,恶化彼此的货物贸易条件;另一方面,服务贸易净出口国亦有可能通过控制技术输出的产业实现本国货物贸易条件的改善。本文以103个国家2000-2014年的跨国面板数据为样本,在克服内生性问题的情况下,首次完成了对Burgess推论的实证检验。结果表明:服务贸易差额扩大会同时恶化净进口国和净出口国的货物贸易条件,但服务贸易净出口国的恶化程度要显著弱于净进口国,因此Burgess推论基本成立。同时研究发现,Burgess推论的适用性受制于入世因素,在加入WTO的成员方中,Burgess推论的解释力有所下降。

According to the statements of Burgess in 1990, the comparative advantage of trade partners would be undermined through technology transfer by service liberalization which thereby could worsen the terms of trade. On the other hand, net exporters of service could control the technology-exporting industries to improve the domestic terms of trade. Based on a panel data of 103 countries from 2000 to 2014, this paper provides a comprehensive empirical test regarding Burgess’ s inference in the condition of overcoming endogenous problems. The results show that the expansion of trade balance in service will deteriorate the terms of trade of both net importers and net exporters, but the degree of deterioration in net exporters is significantly weaker than that of net importers. Therefore, our test supports Burgess’ s inference to some extent. However, we also find that Burgess’ s inference is less effective to explain the cases between the WTO members, which could be possibly due to their accession to the WTO.