基于模糊随机系统动力学模型的矿区环境质量评价

Fuzzy Stochastic System Dynamics Evaluation Model and Its Application in Environment Quality Evaluation in Minerals Mining Region

为了解决矿区环境质量评价问题,将模糊Petri网(FPN)和随机Petri网(SPN)相结合,并扩展成具有状态转移计算功能和可信度计算功能的模糊随机函数函数Petri网(FSFPN);然后,将FSFPN与系统动力学(SD)模型相结合,提出了一种FSFPN-SD模型,该模型很好地继承了SD模型的全部特征,同时又将FSFPN网的全部特征融入到FSFPN-SD模型中。FSFPN-SD模型的评价过程是基于被评价系统的自主动态演变而进行的,从而避开了因选择不合理评价指标而带来的评价结果不准确的困扰;基于Petri网的评价模型图中的节点具有明确的物理含义且具有运行状态表示,节点之间具有明确的因果关联关系,该特点可方便于评价模型的构建。应用结果表明,FSFPN-SD模型能获得评价结论及其可信度、能获得影响评价结论的关键因果路径、能获得评价结果与各影响因素之间的相关性变化曲线。根据这些信息,可以制定具有针对性的控制对策。

In order to solve the problem of environmental quality evaluation of a mineral mining region, the fuzzy Petri-net （FPN） and stochastic Petri-net （SPN） are combined together and then expanded into the fuzzy stochastic function Petri-net （FSFPN）, which can carry out state transition computation and confidence level computation; then by combining FSFPN with system dynamics （SD）, this paper proposes a FSFPN-SD model, this model inherited all the features of the SD model, at the same time, all the features of FSFPN are incorporated into the FSFPN-SD model. The evaluation process in the FSFPN-SD model is carried out on the basis of the autonomous evoluation of the evaluated system, hence avoiding the perplexity resulting from irrational selection of evaluating elements which may lead to incorrect evaluation conclusions; the nodes in the evaluation model＇s graph possess of explicit physic meanings and representation of running states, there are cause and effect relations among nodes, which gives convenience to construct the FSFPN-SD evaluation model. Application results show that the FSFPN-SD model can obtain the evaluation conclusion and its confidence level of the evaluated system, the key path which gives influence on the evaluation conclusion, the variation curves of correlation between the evaluation conclusion and its impacting factors. Based on the infor- mation, some pertinent control countermeasures can be made.