政府卫生支出对个人卫生支出的影响——基于总量与结构效应视角的实证分析

The Impact of Government Health Expenditure on Personal Health Expenditure:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Perspective of Total and Structural Effects

利用lasso回归和多元线性回归相结合的方法,从总量和结构效应两个角度,研究了政府卫生支出对个人卫生支出的影响。结果表明:政府如果只是加大医疗财政支出的规模,而忽略医疗财政支出的各部分结构与居民医疗服务需求相适应,反而会导致个人卫生支出的增加;政府人均医疗卫生服务支出、政府人均人口与计划生育事务支出对人均医疗支出均表现为"挤出"效应,而政府人均医疗保障支出却对人均医疗支出表现为"挤入"效应,除去政府卫生支出对个人卫生支出表现出的效应,人口自然增长率、城市化水平对个人卫生支出表现出较大的"挤入"效应,消费价格指数表现为"挤出"效应。

In this paper,we use the method of Lasso regression and multiple linear regression to study the effect of government health expenditure on personal health expenditure from two aspects：total quantity and structural effect.The results show that if the government only increases the size of medical expenditure,and neglects the structure of medical expenditure to adapt to the needs of personal medical services,it will lead to the increase of personal health expenditure.The government＇s per capita expenditure on medical and health services,both the population and family planning expenditure showed an ＂extrusion＂ effect on per capita medical expenditure,while the government＇s per capita medical expenditure showed a ＂squeeze＂ effect on per capita medical expenditure.Removing the effect of government health expenditure on personal health expenditure,the natural population growth rate and the level of urbanization on personal health expenditure to show a larger ＂squeeze＂ effect,the consumer price index showed ＂squeeze＂ effect.Based on the above effect analysis,the article gives the corresponding policy recommendations.