盾构下穿运营铁路施工风险模糊综合评价方法研究

Study on construction risk of shield tunnel under-passing existing railway by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

针对盾构隧道下穿运营铁路工程的实际特点,对其施工风险进行有效辨识,从而建立基于层次分析法的风险评价结构模型。针对传统层次分析法的不足,通过引入三角模糊数理论对风险因素权重计算过程进行优化,从定量与定性2方面分别构建相应的隶属度函数,最后通过多级模糊综合运算确定盾构下穿运营铁路施工总体风险水平,并进行实例分析。该评价方法思路清晰,操作简便,能更加真实地反映主观判断的模糊性,对类似工程的安全施工具有指导意义。

Considering the actual characteristic of the project about shield tunnel under-passing existing railway, the construction risks were effectively identified and the risk evaluation structure model based on the analytic hierarchy process was established. Further, the triangular fuzzy theory was introduced to optimize the method of calculating the weight of risk factors, and the corresponding membership functions was separately constructed in terms of both quantitative and qualitative respect. At last, the total risk level of the shield tunnel under-passing existing railway is calculated by the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive method, and instance analysis and engineering application were carried out. With its clear theory and simple calculation, this method can be more objectively reflected with the fuzziness of subjective judgement, the result can provide useful guidance to safe construction for similar projects.