流动人口的永久迁移意愿及其决定机制

Floating People's Permanent Migration Intention and Its Determination Mechanism

在从迁出地转移出来之后,我国流动人口的二次迁移(永久迁移)意愿出现了明显分化。在构建"推力—拉力—阻力—能力"的"四力"解释机制的基础上,统计分析发现:我国流动人口的永久迁移意愿呈现出层次性特征,按意愿强烈程度依次是"长期居留""家庭团聚""户籍转换"和"置业安家"。迁入地拉力越大、个体能力越强、家乡羁绊与迁移阻力越小,则其永久迁移意愿越强烈;而来自迁出地及家庭的推力仅能提高其"户籍转换"意愿;流动人口的"长期居留"和"置业安家"意愿主要受到"能力"机制影响,"家庭团聚"与"户籍转换"意愿主要由"拉力"机制决定。流动人口的永久迁移意愿决策已主要遵循经济理性与社会理性逻辑,而不再是生存理性逻辑。

After finishing the out-migration process, floating people＇s permanent migration intention ex-periences obvious interior differentiation. This article constructs a four-force theory, consisting pushforce, pull force, resistance force and individual＇s ability, to explain the differentiation mechanism oftheir permanent migration intention. The study finds that their permanent migration intention has the char-acteristics of multi-level and multi-dimension. According to the willingness degree, they are long-termresidence, family reunion, Hukou-transfer and house-purchasing intention in turn. With the increasing ofpull force and individual＇s ability and the decreasing of resistance forces, their permanent migration in-tention will be stronger. However, there isn＇t positive effect of push forces on permanent migration inten-tion in most models. On the whole, factors of individual＇s ability are most significant to explain their long-term residence and house-purchasing intention, while pull forces are proved to be the most critical factorsto determine their family reunion and Hukou-transfer intention. Furthermore, floating people＇s perma-nent migration intention in contemporary China is mainly determined by their economic rational and so-cial rational, instead of survival rational.