基于API水文模型的动态临界雨量山洪预警方法及应用研究

Research on Dynamic Critical Rainfall Torrential Flood Early Warning Method and Application Based on API Hydrological Model

累计雨量、雨强及降雨空间分布是决定山洪灾害基本特征和影响范围的主要因素。本文在详细分析了山洪预警方法基本理论和API水文模型计算过程的基础上,揭示了在不同时间尺度作用下临界雨量与各影响因素的作用关系;然后对大凌河流域山洪预警的动态临界雨量利用该方法进行计算分析,并将计算结果与其他计算方法进行了对比分析。研究表明:基于API水文模型的动态临界雨量计算法表现出较高的可靠性和精确性,对于预测分析、山洪预警具有良好的适用性,可为其他相似流域山洪预警提供一定决策依据和理论支持。

Cumulative rainfall, rainfall intensity and rainfall spatial distribution are main factors determining basic characteristics and influence range of torrential flood disasters. In the paper,the basic theory of torrential flood early warning methods and API hydrological model calculation process are analyzed in details. On the basis,the interaction relationship of critical rainfall and different influence factors under different time scales is revealed. Then,the method is utilized for calculation and analysis aiming at the dynamic critical rainfall of Daling River basin torrential flood early warning. Research shows that dynamic critical rainfall calculation method based on API hydrological model show higher reliability and accuracy. It has excellent applicability to prediction analysis and torrential flood early warning,which can provide certain decision-making basis and theoretical support for other similar river basin torrential flood early warning.