玛纳斯河流域水资源-生态-经济复合系统的安全评价

Safety evaluation of water resources-eco-economic complex system in Manas River Basin

水资源-生态-经济复合系统安全评价涉及区域水资源、生态和社会经济的相互作用关系,水资源-生态-经济复合系统的安全评价对区域发展规模、资源开发和生态保护具有重要的作用,为区域可持续安全发展提供科学依据。本文针对新疆玛纳斯河流域采用层次分析法和"边际效益递减"原理相结合对水资源-生态-经济复合系统安全性进行评价。结果表明:玛纳斯河流域水资源、经济和生态子系统的权重分别为0.64、0.26和0.10;选取的10个指标里面权重排在前6位的依次是人均水资源量(权重0.41)、水资源开发利用率(权重0.15)、人均GDP(权重0.11)、城市化率(权重0.08)、人均日生活用水量(权重0.08)、生态环境用水率(权重0.07);根据"边际效益递减"原理构建线性模型计算得出玛纳斯河流域水资源-生态-经济复合系统安全评价指数,系统安全评价指数由2000年的0.32增长到2015年的0.41,2000-2015年处在一个安全性较差的状态,但总体呈现出一个逐渐安全的趋势。

The safety evaluation of water resources-e co-economic complex system evaluation and analysis involves interactiverelationship between regional water resources, ecological and socio-economic systems. The safety evaluation of water resources-eco-ec-onomic complex system plays an important role in regional scale of development , resource development and ecological protection, andprovides a scientific basis for regional sustainable and coordinated development . In view of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang, thispaper combines the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and the principle of diminishing marginal benefit to evaluate the safety of thewater resources-eco-economic complex system. The results show that the weights of water resources, economic and ecologicalsubsystems in the Manas River Basin are 0.64, 0.26 and 0.10 respectively. The article selected 10 indicators, the weight in the top sixis the amount of water resources per capita （weight 0.41） , water resources development and utilization rate （weight 0.15） , per capita GDP（weight 0.11） , urbanization rate （weight 0.08） , per capita daily living water consumption （weight 0.08） , ecological environment water userate （weight 0.07） . According to the principle of diminishing marginal benefit , a linear model was constructed to calculate the safetyevaluation index of the water resources-eco-economic, complex system in the Manas River Basin, the system was in a poor securitystate in 2000-2015, but it showed a trend of gradual security, the safety evaluation index increased from 0.32 in 2000 to 0.41 in 2015.