金融诅咒现象的表现、效应及对中国的启示

Financial Curse:Facts,Effects and the Implications for China

大量历史经验表明,金融过度发展会引致"金融诅咒",即金融对经济增长不再能发挥促进作用,而是转为抑制和伤害。本文首先从西方发达国家的经验出发总结了"金融诅咒"的五点表现:1.债务规模迅速扩大,杠杆率不断攀升;2.金融投机泛滥,商品过度金融化;3.金融机构盲目扩张、关联复杂,以至大而不能倒;4.就业过度金融化,教育显现金融热;5.货币资金空转,金融体系自我循环。进而,我们提出"金融诅咒"会带来抑制经济增长、诱发金融危机、左右政策制定和扩大收入差距的四方面效应,并依次讨论了相应的作用渠道和机制。最后,结合中国的现实条件,我们提出四点启示:一是高度重视高杠杆累积的潜在风险,防范系统性金融风险的发生;二是谨防金融过度发展,实现金融发展和实体经济增长的良性互动;三是打击金融投机过度,维护市场稳定秩序;四是调整财税政策,缩小收入分配差距,改善分配不公。

A lot of historical experience and academic research have shown that too much finance will bring about ＂financial curse＂, in which condition financial system no longer supports but hurts economic growth. In this paper, we conclude five symbols of financial curse according to the experience of western countries. （1） the debt size enlarges quickly and the leverage increases fast; （2） the behavior of financial speculation is rampant and commodities are over-financialized; （3） the endless expansion and the complex association of financial institutions lead to the phenomenon of ＂too big to fail＂; （4） occupation and education shows the propensity of finance; （5） money revolves inside the financial system with the form of self-circulation. Furthermore, we propose that the ＂financial curse＂ will result in hurting economic growth, triggering financial cri- sis, affecting policy decisions and widening the income gap and we discuss the corresponding channels and mechanisms in turn. Finally, with the actual conditions of China, we put forward four suggestions. （1）attaching great importance to the accumulation of high-leverage risks in order to prevent systemic financial risk;（2） paying attention to too much finance so as toachieve healthyinteraction between financial development and real eeonomy; （5） cracking down excessive financial speculation to keep market stable and in order; （4） adjusting fiscal and taxation policies to narrow the income distribution gap, to improve unfair distribution of income.