队列期望寿命研究:基于北京市年龄别死亡率的预测

Cohort study on life expectancy: Based on the projection of age-specific mortality in Beijing

目的:研究队列期望寿命测算方法,揭示北京市人群未来寿命的变化趋势。方法:运用人口死亡率预测模型,采用队列期望寿命测算方法,基于北京市户籍人口统计数据,测算北京市1986-2035年队列期望寿命,并与现时期望寿命进行比较。结果:北京市队列期望寿命1986年为82.56岁,2017年为89.90岁,2020年为90.87岁,2030为93.29岁,到2035年将达94.69岁。过去30年,队列与现时期望寿命差值在9岁左右波动。结论:队列期望寿命能比较准确地反映人群的寿命水平。自1986年以来,北京市队列期望寿命稳步提高。鉴于此,应当加快完善养老服务与保障体系,以应对重度老龄化时代的到来。

Objectives： To study the method for the calculation of the cohort life expectancy and reveal its future trend for the Beijing residents. Methods： Based on the mortality projection model and cohort life expectancy calculation method, the cohort life expectancy for the registered residents in Beijing was calculated for the period of 1986～2035 by using the census data of the registered population. Comparison was done between the cohort life expectancy and the period life expectancy. Results： The cohort life expectancy of Beijing was 82.56 in 1986, 89.90 in 2017. It would be 90.87 in 2020, 93.29 in 2030 and 94.69 in 2035 according to the model. In the past thirty years, the difference between cohort and period life expectancy fluctuated around 9 years old. Conclusion： The cohort life expectancy is a better tool than the period life expectancy in terms of the projection on how long the residents will live. The cohort life expectancy in Beijing has been increased steadily since 1986. The pension service system and the long-term care should be enhanced to cope with the severe aging era.