间接经济效益的波及效应和摄动效应分析

Study on ripple effect and perturbation effect of indirect economy effect

直接经济效益和经济效益传递系数两个变量的变动都会引起国民经济间接经济效益总量的变动 ,前者称为波及效应 ,后者称为摄动效应 .本文对这两种效应进行了深入分析和探讨 ,并利用投入产出表提供的数据 ,分析了 1 987- 1 997年四川省国民经济的波及效应和摄动效应 .提出了一种波及效应定位图的方法 ,对各部门的波及效应进行了分类 .分析发现 :在 1 0年中的不同时期 ,促进国民经济间接经济效益总量增长的主要因素是不同的 ,在前期是摄动效应 ,在中期是波及效应 ,在后期是摄动效应和波及效应共同作用的结果 .

Both the variance of direct economy effect and the variance of the transmission factor of economy effect can cause the variance of the gross indirect economy effect of national economy. The former is called as ripple effect; the latter is called as perturbation effect. The parper discussed and studied the two effects. According to the data of the Sichuan province input output from 1987 to 1997, the ripple effects and perturbation effects are studied. At the same time, a new way called as location chart by which we can category the ripple effects of individual divisions is put forward. After studying, we can came to a conclusion: in the different phases of the ten years, the main factors that stimulated the growth of gross national economy effect are different. In the prophase, the main factor is perturbation effect; in the metaphase, is ripple effect; in the anaphase, is the outcome of the ripple effect and perturbation effect.