中国与东盟双边贸易的平衡问题研究——以投入产出分析的视角

Analysis on the Balance of Bilateral Trade between China and the ASEAN:Input-Output Perspective

采用投入产出分析法,对双边总值贸易进行增加值分解;再根据最终需求者和生产提供者,确定中国与东盟贸易利得的分配原则,揭示其分配格局。得出的结论如下:2011-2016年中国对东盟增加值贸易均是顺差,但2014-2016年总值贸易顺差被高估,平均高估26.46%;价值链生产参与程度与贸易利得基本呈反向关系,中马、中泰双边贸易利得基本要低于中印(尼)、中菲和中越;中国对东盟在中高技术制造业上的顺差掩盖了在初级行业、低技术制造业和服务业上的逆差;中国与东盟在整体、不同国别和行业的贸易利益分配格局各有不同。

This paper decomposes the value of bilateral gross trade by using the method of input-output analysis. On the basis of the final demanders and production providers,the paper determines the distribution principles of trade gains between China and the ASEAN and thereby reveals the distribution pattern. The conclusions are illustrated as follows：（ 1）During 2011-2016,China had a surplus of value-added trade to the ASEAN and gross trade surplus was overestimated during 2014-2016,the average overestimate being 26.46%.（ 2） The participation degree of GVCs was basically opposite to the trade gains. The bilateral trade gains between China and Malaysia,China and Thailand were basically lower than those of China and Indonesia,China and the Philippines,China and Vietnam.（ 3） The surplus of China to the ASEAN in the middle and high technology manufacturing industry covered the deficits in the primary industry,the low technology manufacturing industry and the service industry.（ 4） The distribution patterns of trade gains between China and the ASEAN were different not only on the whole,but also in different countries and different industries.