新疆金融发展影响对外贸易的实证分析

Empirically Analyzing Xinjiang Financial Influence to Foreign Trade

一带一路战略的实施为新疆外贸发展提供了机遇,金融影响对外贸易的发展一方面引起进出口总额的变化,另一方面也会引起外商直接投资的变化。通过对外贸依存度和外商直接投资分别与金融相关率、金融效率、金融深度的协整分析和VAR估计,发现几个变量之间存在长期稳定关系,新疆的金融相关率对外贸依存度和外商直接投资具有正向影响,金融效率和金融深度对外贸依存度的正向影响比较滞后,金融效率对外商直接投资的正面影响具有滞后性,金融深度则对外商直接投资具有严格抑制作用。

The implementation of the strategy of One Belt and One Road provides Xinjiang foreign trade development opportunities. Financially influencing the development of foreign trade leads to the change of the total amount of import and export on the one hand,on the other hand,it can also cause the change of the foreign direct investment. Through integration analysis and VAR estimation,this paper analyzes the association of the dependence of foreign trade and FDI with FIR,FE,IP. We found that several variables have a long-term and stable relationship. We also found Xinjiang＇s FIR positively related to foreign trade and FDI,and the positive influence of FE and IP to foreign trade lags behind. the positive impact of the financial efficiency to FDI has a lag,while financial depth has strict inhibition to FDI.