21世纪以来我国灌溉面积构成及农业种植结构变化趋势

Changes in Irrigated Areas and the Types of Cropland in China Since 2000

【目的】揭示我国及各分区灌溉面积构成和农作物种植结构的变化趋势。【方法】基于统计分析和文献调研方法,分析了2000—2014年全国及各大分区灌溉面积及其构成和农作物种植面积及其结构变化情况,并根据我国农产品生产布局及水资源形势对各分区未来耕地灌溉面积发展和农业种植结构调整进行了预判。【结果】(1)一方面,我国耕地灌溉面积及粮食作物播种面积还在继续增加,另一方面,耕地灌溉面积占总灌溉面积的比例由92.7%下降到91.4%,粮食作物播种面积占农作物播种面积的比例由69.4%下降到68.1%;(2)东北和西北耕地灌溉面积增加幅度最大,东北和华中粮食播种面积增加最显著。【结论】我国粮经饲统筹、农林牧渔结合的大农业发展趋势决定了未来耕地灌溉面积和粮食作物播种面积分别在总灌溉面积和农产品播种面积中小幅下降的趋势在未来将持续。东北及华中地区将继续发展灌溉面积保障稻谷和小麦等谷物种植;东北和西南会大力发展油料作物及饲料作物;西北和华北耕地灌溉面积将难以增长;西北将着力发展低耗水的薯类、杂粮及饲草作物;华北将调减小麦播种面积并适当发展油料及饲料作物。

【Objectives】This paper is to analyze the changes in irrigated areas and types of cropland in different regions across the country in 15 years from 2000 to 2014.【Method】We statistically analyzed the data available in this period and predicted their potential changes based on the national strategies on agricultural production and available water resources in different regions.【Result】（1）Both irrigated areas and total cropland areas have seen an increase from 2000 to 2014, while the ratio of the former to the latter dropped from 92.7% to 91.4% and the ratio of the area of cropland for grain production to total cropland area decreased from 69.4% to 68.1%.（2）The irrigated cropland in the northeast and the northwest increased more than that in other regions, and the cropland for grain production increased more rapidly in the northeast and central China. The ratio of irrigated cropland to the total irrigated areas, as well as the ratio of the areas for grain crops to the areas for all crops is predicted to continue to decrease. This is due to the development of so called＂mega agriculture＂which is to balance the production of grain crops, cash crops and fodder crops, as well as the production of farming, forest, animal husbandry and fishery. Also, the predicted results indicated that the irrigated areas for rice and wheat will increase to safeguard their production, and the areas for oil and fodder crops will increase in the northeast and the southwest. In contrast, the irrigated cropland in the northwest and the north will remain almost the same. In northwest China,the lands for potatoes, cereals and fodder crops will increase due to the limitation of water resources. Some croplands in North China would be converted from wheat to oil and fodder crops due to limitation of water resources.【Conclusion】The overall croplands and irrigated will continue to change in China due to national strategies on agriculture and availability of water resources in the next decades or so.