市场风险、契约动态与包容性增长——以肉鸡产业为例

Market Risk,Contract Dynamics and Inclusive Growth:Take Broiler Industry as an Example

利用农村固定观察点2003年至2012年的面板数据,通过6个指标全面测度市场价格波动幅度与变动趋势,实证分析市场价格风险对小规模养殖户契约动态变化的影响,并探讨不同风险背景下契约对小规模养殖户收入影响的差异性。研究结果显示:一方面,市场价格波动幅度的增加会显著提高农户加入契约的概率;另一方面,契约对于农户收入的积极影响仅当市场价格下跌时显著,当市场价格大幅度波动尤其是呈现上升趋势时,契约的收入效应减弱甚至为负,此时退出契约反而能显著提高农户的养殖收入。由此可见,当前中国的"公司+农户"契约模式在帮助小农承担"跌价风险"方面实现了包容性,通过透明化的利润分配控制企业的"风险溢价"收益,保障小农获得合理的"涨价收益"是未来契约农业健康发展的关键。

Based on the panel data of ＂National Rural Fixed Observation Point Survey ＂from 2003 to2012,this paper comprehensively measures the market price risk through six indicators,empirically analyzes the impact of market price risk on the changes of contract,and discusses the difference effects of contract on farmers＇ income under different risk backgrounds. The results show that： on the one hand,farmers are more likely to join in the contract w hen the market risk is strengthened; On the other hand,the positive impact of the contract on the income of farmers is only significant w hen the market price falls. When the market price show s an upw ard trend,the income effect of the contract is w eakened or even is negative,and the w ithdraw al of the contract can significantly improve the farmer＇s income. It can be seen that the current ＂company ＋ farmer＂contract in China helps farmers bear the ＂risk of price falling ＂to achieve an inclusive grow th,the key to the healthy development of contract agriculture is to control the ＂risk premium ＂income of the enterprise through the transparent profit distribution to ensure that the small farmers get reasonable income.