城市化进程中的土地功能转换预测

Land function transformation prediction in the process of the urbanization

我国城市化进程在加快,城市用地不足。针对城市用地类型的转变问题,应用主成分分析法确定与城市扩张相关的驱动因子,根据灰色关联度模型的结果确定影响城市化进程的最大因素,结合CD生产函数回归模型,预测未来城市用地面积;确定土地利用转移概率,为未来城市土地扩容与功能变化提供依据。

The urban land is insufficient with urbanization process accelerating. This paper aims at the transformation of urban land types. Using principal component analysis determine the driving factors associated with urban expansion, according to the results of the grey correlation model to determine the largest factors influencing the urbanization process, combining with the CD production function regression model, to predict the future urban land area and determine land use transition probability. This paper can provide basis for future urban land expansion and functional change.