中国降低企业税负的经济效应——基于基于GTAP模型的评估

Economic Effect of Lowering Corporate Tax Burden in China——Evaluation Based on GTAP Model

本文以降低企业所得税为例，运用GTAP模型模拟分析中国降低企业税负对国内经济的影响，得到如下结论：在宏观经济影响方面，降低企业税负有助于提高中国的GDP、居民收入与消费支出和资本收益率，改善中国贸易条件；在产业影响方面，降低企业税负会使中国大多数产业部门的进口规模扩大，导致中国产业部门的总体产出水平、出口规模与贸易顺差减少，还会使中国出口产品价格上涨与进口商品价格普遍下跌；随着企业减税力度的增加，减税政策对中国宏观经济和产业经济的影响也随之增加。

This paper takes the reduction of corporate income tax as an example, uses the GTAP model to simulate and analyze the impact of reducing the tax burden on domestic economy in China. The following conclusions are drawn： In terms of mac ro-economy impact, reducing corporate tax burden will help increase China＇s GDP, household income and expenditure, as well as the return on capital, in this way we can improve the terms of trade in China. In terms of industrial impact, reducing corporate tax burdens will increase the import scale of the vast majority of China＇ s industrial sectors, resulting in the decrease of the over- all output level, export scale, and trade surplus of China＇ s industrial sectors. The reduction will also increase the price of China＇ s export products and decrease the prices of imported goods. With the increase in corporate tax reduction efforts, the impact of tax cuts on China＇ s macro-economy and industrial economy will increase as well.