产能过剩治理:靠政府还是靠市场

Overcapacity Treatment:Relying on Government or Market

大量研究认为政府过度干预经济活动是产能过剩的成因之一,而市场化程度是否有利于产能利用率的提升,客观现实对此提出了质疑。本文综合考虑了生产侧与消费侧两个层面的现实特征,对2001-2014年中国各省工业部门的产能利用率进行测算与分析,并考察了各省的市场化进程对于产能利用率的间接影响效果。研究发现:样本区间内中国工业部门产能过剩程度日趋严重,综合产能利用率的波动主要是由生产侧产能利用率变化引起的;各个省市之间的产能利用水平存在较大差异,总体而言,与中西部相比,东部地区的产能利用率略高;市场化进程并不能改善产能利用率水平,反而对产能利用率的提升具有消极影响,这是由于政府对市场支配能力的降低反而加重投资的潮涌现象,并进一步降低了中国工业部门的产能利用率水平。因此,在中国目前市场化程度逐步加深的过程中,为了遏制日趋严重的产能过剩现象,政府应该更加充分地发挥其重要的"辅助作用",及时公布产业信息以防止过度投资。

A large number of studies suggest that excessive government intervention in economic activities is the important reason of excess capacity. Whether the degree of marketization is condu- cive to the improvement of capacity utilization, the objective facts are questioned. In this paper, we combine the two aspects of production side and consumption side, calculate the capacity utilization rate of industrial sectors of 30 provincial-level regions in china from 2001 to 2014, and investigate the direct and indirect effects of the marketization process on capacity utilization. We found that., in the sample interval, the degree of overeapacity in China＇s industrial sector is becoming more and more serious, and the fluctuation of overall capacity utilization is mainly caused by the change of production size~ There is a large difference in the capacity utilization rate of different provinces and cities, the capacity utilization rate of the eastern region is higher than that of the central and West ern regions ; The marketization process is not conducive to improving the capacity utilization rate, e- ven has negative influence on the improvement of the rate of capacity utilization. This is due to the reduction in government＇s ability to dominate the market increased wave phenomenon of invest- ment, and further reduce the level of Chings capacity utilization. Therefore, in the process of Chi- nese gradually deepening marketization, in order to curb the increasingly serious overcapacity, the government should fully play its important assistant action, and publish industrial guidance infor- mation in a time to prevent the influx of excessive investment.