基于出口视角中国对外反倾销政策效应再评估

A Study on the Export Effects of Chinese Antidumping Policy

出口是衡量反倾销政策效应的一个有效工具。将反倾销的分析框架从国内市场拓展到出口市场,利用1996-2015年我国289种HS6分位产品的出口数据,采用双重差分法,在贸易引力模型的框架下检验对外反倾销对我国产品出口的影响。研究发现,在实施反倾销之后,我国进口竞争性产品的出口出现了长期增长,其出口概率、出口总额、出口数量与出口价格同步提高;进一步分析显示,反倾销主要通过规模经济效应、而非技术创新效应发挥作用,虽然有助于我国出口数量的大规模扩张,但无益于其出口竞争力的显著提升,可能导致国内企业重陷粗放型增长的泥沼。该结论提醒决策部门,对外反倾销应统筹考虑进出口市场,加强包括反倾销政策在内的贸易政策与产业政策协调,同时做好反倾销政策效应评估工作,有效提升反倾销的实施效果,助力国家供给侧改革和产业结构升级。

Export performance is a useful evaluating tool of the effect of antidumping （AD） poli- cy. Using an export dataset of 289 varieties of 6 digital tariff codes from 1997 to 2015, the paper extends the analysis framework of AD from domestic market to export one, adopts the method of difference-in-differences to examine the effect of antidumping measures advocated by China in the framework of a gravity trade model. It shows that AD stimulates the export probability, value, quantity and price growth of Chinese import-competing products in the long run. Moreover, AD works mainly through the scale economies effect instead of the technology innovation effect, but it only enlarges the export quantity growth and doesn＇t significantly improve the export competitive- ness of China, which probably brings Chinese firms into the mire of inefficient growth again. Therefore, Chinese government should pay attention to both import and export market while adop- ting AD policy, harmonize the industry policy and trade policy which includes AD, do the effect e- valuation work of AD carefully, and enhance the economic effect of AD policy helpfully, in order to serve the national goals of supply-side reform and industrial structure upgrading.