基于层次话题模型的煤矿安全事故致因要素研究

On the cause tracing of the coal mine safety accidents based on the hierarchical topic model

为促进安全发展,强化煤矿安全管理的科技支撑,在事故致因理论基础上,利用文本挖掘中的话题模型和创新性构建的层次致因要素话题模型,对我国2000—2015年发生的386起重特大煤矿事故调查报告进行了深入地挖掘、分析和研究。发现事故致因隐含的规律及各类事故之间的关联与共性,并进一步研究发现不同致因要素随时间的演化规律及致灾倾向,为煤矿安全管理找出重点,指导煤矿安全生产管理实践。

This paper is aimed to propose an automatic hierarchical text mining method to boost the regulatory and management capability of the coal mine to improve the coal mining safety.According to the current text mining model and the characteristics of the coal mining accidents,the paper has provided for a survey report of 386 serious coal mine accidents over the past 16 years in the country,in which we have classified the coal mine safety accidents based on the theory of the accident causes and summary of practical experiences on the main coal mine accidents,so as to bring forward an automatic mining method and model through a survey report text via the word segment system in the text processing field.The said model can be used to analyze the main causes and probability distributions of the coal mine accidents in the mining history.The hierarchical text of the cause elements and the topic model of the hierarchical cause-effect elements can thus have been creatively built up with the topic model being introduced according to the classification of the direct causes of the coal mine safety accidents and the corresponding expert assessment experiences,all of which can help us to classify the causal factors label and the cause topics so as to work out the causeeffect relationship and the potential background regularities.And,then,it would be possible to make an exploration of the potential regularities and the characteristic features of such accident causes.Further correlation analysis between the topic and time of the actual accident taking place can further reveal the different detailed causes for the mining accidents and the evolutionary trends of the actual disasters with the time elapsing,which can help us to identify and determine the principal causes of the accidents and solve the problems of management and execute a successful guidance to the management practice to strengthen the coal mine working safety by reducing such accidents.