我国信托业发展的系统动力学仿真研究

A Simulation Study of the Development of China's Trust Industry Based on System Dynamics

本文在分析信托发展的内外部因素及其社会经济效应的基础上,构建了信托业发展的系统动力学模型,对我国信托业的实际发展情况进行了仿真模拟,据此分析了货币政策、信托行业政策变化等不同情境变化对信托业务总体规模及不同类型信托业务发展的影响。结果发现,利率调整将使得信托产品发行额微幅下调,货币政策的量化宽松将使得信托发行规模膨胀,但货币政策调整对信托业务结构影响不大。净资本比例调整对信托业的发展影响较为明显。针对信托收益的个税征收对集合资金信托发行量的影响相对较大,对单一基金信托和财产信托的影响较小。

This paper makes a simulation study of the development of China’s trust industry. A system dynamics model is constructed based on the analysis of the key factors affecting the development of trust industry as well as the trust industry’s socio-economic effects.Then simulation analysis is made to explore the impacts of different policies,i.e. monetary policies,net capital restriction and person income taxes,on the size of the total assets and business structure of trust industry. It is found that monetary policies would influence the size of total assets but have little effects on the business structure. And the net capital restriction has obvious effects on the size of total assets,while the personal income taxes would affect the business structure of China’s trust industry.