考虑交互关系和风险偏好的企业R&D项目组合决策模型研究

Research on Decision-making Model of Enterprise R&D Project Portfolio Considering Interdependencies and Risk Preference

针对风险偏好者的决策模型缺乏风险因素的考量、风险规避者的模型相对保守、交互关系增加了项目组合决策复杂性等目前不同风险偏好下的R&D项目组合决策研究存在的不足,首先,分析交互关系的影响机理,并采用关联矩阵对交互关系进行度量。其次,提出R&D项目组合风险波动上界概念,依据风险偏好追求"高赢利"与风险规避者追求"低风险"的目标,给出满足不同风险偏好的R&D项目组合决策模型。最后,通过实例研究发现,与传统模型相比,本文提出的风险规避者决策模型可以在风险可控范围内,选择收益增加较高的项目组合;风险偏好者的决策模型能在追求"高赢利"项目组合的同时,加强局部项目的风险控制,减少组合失败可能性。

R＆D project portfolio decision-making with different risk preferences faces multiple problem, e. g. , decision-mak- ing models for risk seekers do not consider the risk factors, models for risk averters are relatively conservative, and interde- pendences complicates project portfolio decision-making. In the face of these problems, this paper analyzes the impact mech- anism of interdependence and develops a model to measure these effects based on dependent matrix. Then the conception of upper bound of R＆D project portfolio risk fluctuation is proposed. The decision-making models of the R＆D project portfolio with different risk preferences are built considering the goals of pursuing high returns for risk seekers and low risks for risk averters. Finally, a case study is presented. Compared with the traditional models, the proposed decision model for risk avert- ers can select project portfolio that brings a higher benefits under well-controlled risks. Meanwhile, the model for risk seekers can pursue high returns and strengthen risk control for partial projects, reducing the project porffolio＇s possibility of failure.