关于能源转型分析的评述 (一)转型要素及研究范式

A Review of Energy Transition Analysis Part One Elements and Paradigms

提炼能源转型问题的要素,强调应重视政策制定者、能源供应者等不同利益相关者行为的影响;梳理能源转型研究的不同目的,即解释(explanation)、预测(prediction)、推演(projection)及优化(optimization)等,研究的要点及面临的挑战;归纳能源转型研究范式的现状与不足;提出基于技术—经济—行为统计学模型—真实人混合交互仿真及反复推演,协调优化转型目标与路径的新范式。其续篇将讨论能源转型研究中的不确定性因素及分析方法。

This paper extracts the elements of energy transition issue, emphasizing that the behaviors of stakeholders such as policy makers, and energy suppliers can impact the energy transition dynamic significantly. The main aims （explanation, prediction, projection, and optimization）, contents, and challenges of energy transition researches are presented, and the state- of-the-art research paradigms for energy transition and their limitations on addressing the challenges introduced by human behaviors are reviewed. Finally, this paper suggests a new research paradigm, hybrid simulation of technology-economic- behavior model with human participants, in which the energy transition target and pathway is optimized by repeatedly carrying out experimental economic simulation. The subsequent paper will discuss the uncertainties and analysis approaches in the energy transition researches. This work is support by Major Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering （No. 2016-ZD-07） and the Science and Technology Project of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited （No. SHGF-16-68）.