住房供应结构管制的市场效应——以“90/70”政策为例

The Market Effect of Housing Supply Structure Control——Evidence from "90/70" Regulation

本文基于成都市2004—2013年的新建商品住房近100万套全样本微观交易数据,采用时间序列干扰分析模型等经验研究方法对该政策的影响效果从＂量＂、＂价＂两个方面进行全面的评估。结果发现：（1）此政策的引导起到了显著的作用,成交套型更加向65～90平方米面积段集中,尤其是接近90平方米的85～90平方米面积段,成交量相对增加了330.6%,远大于其他面积段的变化幅度;（2）成交价格方面无论是从绝对均价还是从中位数价格均呈现出＂套型面积越大,住房价格涨幅越大＂的特点,尤其是150平方米以上住房,价格涨幅随着面积的增加显著提升。总体来讲,政策的实施效果基本上符合管理层的初衷,但随着计划生育政策的逐步放开,家庭户均人口的增大,和不同类型城市人口流入结构的变化,我们建议审慎大范围重启此政策,以免造成微观市场上的＂供需＂错配。

We used nearly 1 million full sample micro-transactions data of Chengdu Housing Market from 2004 to2013, comprehensively evaluated the effect of this policy. Results show that local government thorough implemented it, also played a positive role, housing turnover around 65-90 square meters, especially 85-90 square meters housing transaction has increased more than three times, and the average price rise smaller relative to larger apartments, especially housing size more than 150 square meters. However, with the gradual release of family planning policy and the increase of the household population, also different cities have different migration structure, we suggest the government should further prudently restart this policy.