房地产价格对实体经济波动的动态影响——基于Sys-GMM模型的实证分析

The Dynamic Influence of Real Estate Price on Real Economic Fluctuation——An Empirical Analysis Based on Sys-GMM Model

本文选取2001—2015年全国31个省份的动态面板数据,运用Sys-GMM模型估计方法,探讨房地产价格对我国实体经济波动的动态影响。研究结果显示,滞后期实体经济波动与当期是正相关关系,房地产市场价格变动与实体经济波动当期同方向变动,但当期房地产价格起伏对实体经济波动正向影响程度并不是十分强烈。此外,通过进一步检验发现,房地产价格变动对实体经济波动具有动态影响,尤其在金融危机发生后,当期和滞后一期的房价变动对实体经济波动都具有显著的正向影响。为此,要积极防范由房地产价格过快上涨导致资产价格泡沫,同时要采取有效措施避免实体经济资金过度向虚,以保持实体经济稳定增长。

This paper selects dynamic panel data of 31 provinces in 2001-2015 years and applies Sys-GMM model to estimate the dynamic impact of real estate prices on China＇s real economy fluctuations. The results show that the real economic fluctuation is positively correlated with the current period. The real estate market price fluctuation is in the same direction as the real economy fluctuation. But the positive impact of the real estate price fluctuation on the real economy is not very strong. In addition, through further tests, it is found that the real estate price fluctuation has a dynamic impact on the real economy fluctuations. Especially after the financial crisis, the real estate price fluctuation in the current and lagging period has a significant positive impact on the real economy fluctuations. Therefore, we must guard against asset price bubbles caused by the rapid rise of real estate prices and take effective measures to avoid excessive excess of real economy, so as to maintain steady growth of the real economy.