地缘政治视角下的世界秩序重构:七球不落新常态

The World Order Reconstruction from the Geopolitics' Perspective:The New Normal of Seven Balls Can't Fall

地缘冲突所造成的国际政治局势变动一直是影响世界秩序分化组合的重要因素,本文以地缘政治为研究视角分析了近年来世界秩序重构的主要趋势。在对主要大国与热点地区地缘问题回顾的过程中,发现世界秩序在地缘上正在形成以亚欧大陆为核心,以七个具有世界影响力的大国为基础,具有内、外制衡与相互依存特征的全球性权力系统。促成这一系统的关键因素包括钓鱼岛国有化、"中国快速崛起"、英国退出欧盟、乌克兰危机、美国重回"美国优先"、中印边境冲突等一系列似乎必然的重要地缘事件。当下,这一新的全球性权力系统正在将世界秩序推向"七球不落"的新常态。而中国要和平崛起并在世界秩序重构进程中发挥关键性作用,必须充分利用和驾驭这一新趋势。积极应对这一世界秩序重构进程中出现的任何挑战与问题,主动建构和维护以此为核心的世界秩序平衡,进而在结构上使全球政治迈入总体稳定的轨道。在具体的政策上,中国则更应重视大国双边外交,同时以"三角-多边组合"的交叉外交为补充来分割各大国,从而使得未来中国在任何一组地缘关系中都成为关键或核心的主导性大国。

The change of international political situation caused by the geopolitical conflict has been an important factor influencing differentiation and composition of the world order.This paper analyzes the main trend of the world order reconstruction from the perspective of geopolitics in recent years.In the process of reviewing the major powers and hot-spots between geo-issues,the research discover that the world order are forming on the geopolitical Asia-Europe continent as the core.Based on the Seven influential Powers,the global power system has the characteristics of balancing both inside and outside and interdependence.There are many key factors contributing geopolitical crisis,including nationalization of Diaoyu islands,＂China＇s rapid rise＂,the Brexit,the Ukraine crisis,America returns to＂America First＂,the sino-indian border conflict and a series of important geopolitical inevitable events.Now,this new global power system is pushing the world order to the new normal of＂seven balls can＇t fall＂.China must fully utilize and harness this new trend if China wants to rise in peace and play a key role in reconstruction of world order.China should actively cope with any challenges and problems that emerge in the process of the world order reconstruction,maintain this balance as the core of world order,and then push global politics into the overall stability of the orbit.On specific policies,China should pay more attention to bilateral diplomacy,divide the major powers with the cross diplomacy of＂triangular multilateral＂combination as supplements at the same time.Thus,China will become the key or core leading power in any set of geopolitical relation in the future.