河南省人口——空间城镇化耦合协调的多尺度时空格局研究

Multi Scale Spatial-Temporal Coupling Pattern and Optimization of Population-Spatial Urbanization in Henan Province

人口与空间是城镇化的重要组成部分,本文在界定人口城镇化与空间城镇化协调发展内涵的基础上,构建综合评价指标体系,采用熵权灰色关联模型、耦合协调度模型、发展水平评价模型对河南省1990-2015年两者协调发展水平进行测度,并结合空间分析方法,从省域、市域、县域三个层面对2005、2010、2014年两者协调发展时空演变格局进行分析。结果表明:(1)时间序列上,河南省人口城镇化与空间城镇化协调发展指数呈不断上升趋势,但人口城镇化发展相对滞后;(2)从空间分异格局看,市域级、县级尺度耦合协调状况整体相似,但随着研究尺度的细化,空间分布格局异质性特征逐渐明显;(3)从空间关联特征看,人口城镇化与空间城镇化协调发展度空间关联均以正相关为主,但冷热点的分布区域及分布范围有所不同,市域级冷热点多呈零散分区分布,县级尺度则多为集中连片状分布。在此基础上对不协调原因进行分析,认为两者发展状态主要受到城市发展的外在制度因素与内在基础因素的共同影响,并提出了相应的优化路径。

Population and space are important components of urbanization. Based on the connotation of the coordinated development of population urbanization and spatial urbanization, this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation index system, adopts the grey relational model of entropy weight, coupling coordination degree model and development level evaluation model. The co-ordinated development level of Henan province from 1990 to 2015 is measured, and spatial analysis methods are used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of coordinated development in 2005, 2010 and 2014 from provincial, municipal, and county levels. The results show that： I） In the time series, the coordinated development index of population urbanization and spatial urbanization in Henan province is on the rise, but the development of population urbanization lags behind; 2） From the perspective of spatial differentiation pattern, the coupling coordination status of the city level and county scale the overall situation is similar, but with the refinement of the research scale, the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution pattern is gradually obvious. 3） From the perspective of the spatial correlation, the spatial correlation between the urbanization of population and spatial urbanization is positively related, but cold. The distribution and distribution of the hotspots are different. The cold and hot spots at the municipal level are mostly scattered and distributed, while the county scales are mostly distributed in patches. Based on this analysis, we analyze the causes of incoordination, and believe that the development status of both is mainly influenced by the external institutional factors and internal basic factors of urban development, and proposes corresponding optimization paths.