房价不确定性对城镇居民消费影响的研究——一个行为金融学角度的分析

The Effect of House Price Uncertainty on Urban Resident Consumption——An Analysis of Behavioral Finance

首次研究了房价不确定性对我国居民消费的影响。依据不确定性特征,将其划分为"优于预期"不确定性和"劣于预期"不确定性两类,在现阶段,房价不确定性对居民消费有显著抑制效应,且不确定性特征的影响呈现非对称性,城镇居民消费对"优于预期"不确定性反映更为敏感。为探究其内在原因,借鉴行为经济学的基本理论和方法,假设居民的不安全心理是决定其消费行为的重要因素,且不确定性变化又为影响居民安全心理状态的重要因素。通过检验发现,当不确定性变动危及居民心理安全需求时,居民消费对收入增长的弹性反应系数显著降低,上述结论预示着政府在对房价不确定性进行调控时,一方面可通过提高信息透明度,降低不确定性以保障居民心理安全,另一方面可通过合理引导预期,提升居民消费意愿,进而达到刺激消费增长的目的。

The impact of house price uncertainty on the consumption of urban residents in China has been studied in this paper.According to its characteristics,uncertainty has been divided as the ＂ better than anticipation＂ uncertainty and the ＂ worse than anticipaiton＂ uncertainty.At this period,house price uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on consumption,and the impact of the characteristics of uncertainty is asymmetric.Furthermore,urban residents＇ consumption is more sensitive for ＂ better than anticipation＂ uncertainty.In order to explore its internal reasons,the theories and methods of behavioral economics are used in the research.It is hypothesized that the insecure psychology of residents is an important factor to determine their consumption behaviors,and the uncertainty change is an important factor affecting the insecure psychology.It has been proved that when the changing uncertainty endangers the psychological safety needs of residents,the elastic response coefficient between the consumption and income growth would diminish significantly.The above conclusions indicate that the government can regulate the uncertainty of house price in the following aspects：（1） guarantee residents＇ psychological security needs by improving the transparency of information and reducing the uncertainty;（2） in order to stimulate consumption,a reasonable guide of anticipation and enhance of resident＇s consumption intention is necessary.