2018年中国物价走势分析与判断

Analysis of the Price Movement of China in 2018

2017年中国物价总体保持平稳、低位运行态势。2018年,将影响物价走势的城乡居民收入增长、人工成本的上升、资源品价格的走高、供给侧去产能的持续推进等推动物价上涨的因素,与稳健的货币政策、房地产市场调控、市场竞争等抑制物价上涨因素对冲后,对中国物价走势的基本判断是:物价总水平保持前高后低,整体温和上行的运行态势。

In 2017, the prices in China generally remained steady in the low range. In 2018,the author predicts that rise of prices is going to happen for many factors： income increase of residents both in cities and rural areas, raise of labor cost, going-up price of resource goods and continuous cutting of overcapacity on the supply-side. However, in view of some price-inhibiting factors-the prudent monetary policy and the real estate control, the general price level in 2018 will remain higher in the first half of the year and go down in the second half, keeping a moderate upgoing trend on the whole.