“丝绸之路经济带”背景下新疆与欧亚经济联盟贸易潜力实证研究

Empirical Research on Trade Potential between Xinjiang and the Eurasian Economic Union under the "Silk Road Economic Belt"

新疆维吾尔自治区是我国“一带一路”倡议中的核心区域，也是贯通欧亚大陆的重要的交通枢纽和商贸物流中心。其独特的区位优势将成为向西开放、深化与欧亚国家贸易合作的重要的窗口。文章采用面板数据的引力模型进行实证分析，并测算了新疆与欧亚经济联盟贸易潜力，发现新疆与亚美尼亚贸易潜力增长空间较大；俄罗斯和白俄罗斯与新疆贸易具有较大潜力且提升空间巨大；新疆与哈萨克斯坦贸易潜力仍然具有提升空间；而新疆与吉尔吉斯斯坦贸易潜力有限。通过实证研究结论，文章提出改变新疆经济发展方式，兼顾与中亚和独联体国家的贸易合作，以及优先发展交通基础设施建设三方面政策建议。

Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region （referred to as Xinjiang） is the core region under ＂The Belt and Road＂ Initiative, which is also an important transportation hub and business logistics center connecting to Eurasia. Its distinctive privilege in location will promote this region to serve as a vital base for the opening up towards the west and deepening trade cooperation with European and Asian countries. The results show plenty of room for the growth of trade potential between Xinjiang and Armenia, vast potential of considerable improvement in Xinjiang-Russia and Xinjiang-Belarus trade, possible trade potential for Xinjiang and Kazakhstan, and limited potential between the trade of Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan. Taken all the result into conclusion, the paper raises three policy suggestions： to change the way of economic development in Xinjiang, to take care of both cooperation with Middle-Asia and with Commonwealth of Independent States, and to put the construction of infrastructure in communication and transportation as a priority.