中国城市规模分布时空演化特征——基于“五普”和“六普”人口统计数据的实证研究

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of China’s City Size Distribution

根据“五普”和“六普”城镇常住人口统计数据，按照国际上常用的城市人口规模阈值标准筛选城市样本，采用统计分布检验、空间基尼系数、马尔科夫转移矩阵等方法，从全国、区域和省域三个层面考察中国城市规模的统计分布模式、空间分布特征和结构演化态势。结果表明：①2000-2010年，中国城市规模分布均符合位序-规模法则，但并不服从对数正态分布、帕累托分布和齐普夫分布；城市规模结构呈“金字塔”格局，城市规模差距过小；受行政区划变动的影响，城市规模分布呈现集中化趋势；不同规模等级城市增长趋势差异明显。②2010年，仅东北地区城市规模服从帕累托分布，其他区域城市规模既不服从帕累托分布也不服从对数正态分布；四大板块内部城市规模差距均过小，且并不存在梯度或反梯度分异规律；东部、西部和东北地区首位城市规模相对优势不突出；2000-2010年，中部地区的城市规模差距在缩小，而其他区域城市规模差距则在扩大。③绝大部分省份内部城市规模发展过于均衡，但也有部分省份城市体系“一城独大”特征明显；省域城市规模差距的地域差异显著，但未表现出梯度或反梯度分异特征。

Based on the city samples extracted by the commonly used urban population threshold, with the urban resident population data from the 5th and 6th Population Census, in this paper we study the statistical distribution pattern, spatial distribution characteristics and structure evolution of China＇ s city size at the national scale, regional scale, and provincial scale, by using spatial distribution test, spatial Gini coefficient and Markov transition matrix. The result shows that： 1） from 2000 to 2010, China＇ s city size distribution obeys the rank-size rule, but it does not obey lognormal distribution, Pareto distribution and Zipf＇ s distribution. The structure of China＇ s city size is subject to ＂pyramid＂ pattern, and the gap among city sizes is too small. Influenced by the change of administrative area division, China＇ s city size distribution is more centralized. There is obvious difference in the growth trend of cities with different size level. 2） In 2010, the city size distribution in Northeast China obeys Pareto distribution, and those in other regions don＇ t obey Pareto distribution and lognormal distribution. The gap among city sizes within the four regions is too small, and there is no gradient or anti- gradient differentiation between the four regions. The relative advantages of primate cities in the eastern, western and northeast regions are not outstanding. The gap among city sizes within the Central China was narrowing, and those within other regions are widening from 2000 to 2010.3） The development of city size in most of the provinces is too balanced, but meanwhile the urban systems of several provinces are dominated by one city. The spatial difference of gap of city sizes at provincial scale is significant, but shows no gradient or anti-gradient differentiation.