城市商业综合体建筑火灾事故演变路径分析

Analysis of evolution path of urban commercial complex fire accident

为促进城市商业综合体建筑火灾情景演变路径分析程序及表示方法的规范化,依据城市商业综合体建筑火灾特点,基于知识元模型中的特征要素表示情景,识别情景中致灾因子、承灾体、驱动要素为主的特征要素,通过分析主要特征要素的状态参数变化及特征要素间相互作用,确定城市商业综合体建筑火灾事故情景可能演变路径并以网络图的形式表示。研究表明：基于特征要素的演变路径分析及网络图表达方法实现了城市商业综合体建筑火灾事故演变路径分析及表示的规范化、直观化。

In order to facilitate normalization of the analysis procedures and expression methods of evolution path in emergency decision-making on urban commercial complex fire accident, urban commercial complex fire was studied on the basis of the knowledge element model. Characteristic elements were identified for expressing the accident,including the factors causing disaster,the object of disaster,and the activating elements. An analysis pattern for influence factors of the evolution of urban commercial complex fire accident was set up so as to improve the comprehensiveness of the research methods of evolution path and the accuracy of the decision of emergency command. Meanwhile,a scenario evolution path analysis and expression mode was established on the basis of the influence factors of evolution. The research provides a decision basis for the response to urban commercial complex fire accidents based on the possible evolution path.