基于单位家电负荷指标法的乡镇负荷预测研究

Research on rural power load forecast based on unit household electrical appliance load index

乡镇电网负荷发展迅猛,而农配网网架薄弱、设备陈旧、问题频出,解决问题的措施仅限于事后补救,缺乏精细化深入研究和针对性解决问题。本文以台区家电为单位,收集整理台区内居民用户家电保有量、预增量以及使用习惯,结合台区内家电一般功率及需用系数,利用单位家电负荷指标法,可较准确预测乡镇负荷,为农网改造发展提高理论支撑,进而提高供电可靠率。

Rural power network load develops rapidly, but the rural power network is weak, equipment is obsolete, problem is frequent, solving measure is only remedy afterwards,which lacks refine and intensive research, lacks pertinence of solving the problem. The research uses the household electrical appliance in transformer area as a unit, collect the ownership increase and using habit of the rural resident household electrical appliances, the rural power network load could be forecasted exactly in two years by using the unit household electrical appliance load index method which combines the normal power and required coefficient of the rural electrical appliances in the transformer area, which can guide the development of the rural power network, and then increases the reliability of power supply.