中国与RCEP其他成员国双边贸易影响因素及潜力实证研究

Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors and Potentialities of Bilateral Trade between China and other RCEP Member Countries——Based on the Extended Gravity Model

本文基于区域全面经济伙伴关系(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,RCEP)成员国的面板数据,以传统引力模型为基础,结合中国与RCEP其他成员国的双边贸易建立起扩展的引力模型,分别对中国与RCEP其他成员国贸易流量和贸易潜力进行了实证和预测。研究结论表明:影响中国与RCEP其他成员国双边贸易额的因素主要有国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值、两国间人均国内生产总值的差额、成员国的对外开放度和政治因素。在此基础上,测算了中国与RCEP其他成员国的贸易潜力,得出中国与马来西亚、越南、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国、柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸这八个国家的双边贸易属于潜力再造型,而与日本、新加坡、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、文莱这六个国家间存在"贸易不足"的结论。最后,结合"逆全球化"的动向进一步提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the panel data of member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership（RCEP）,based on the traditional gravitation model and based on the bilateral trade between China and the other RCEP member countries,an extended gravitation model is established to analyze China Empirical and forecasting trade flows and trade potential with other RCEP member countries.The conclusion of the study shows that the main factors influencing the bilateral trade volume between China and the other RCEP member countries are GDP,GDP per capita,GDP per capita difference between the two countries,opening up of member countries and political factors.On this basis,the potential of China＇s trade with other RCEP member countries is measured.It is concluded that bilateral trade between China and Malaysia,Vietnam,the Philippines,Thailand,Cambodia,Laos and Myanmar is a potential reshaping,Japan,Singapore,South Korea,Australia,New Zealand and Brunei have ＂ under-trade＂ conclusions.Finally,we put forward corresponding policy recommendations in the light of the trend of ＂ anti-globalization＂.