MaxEnt生态位模型在红花槭引种区预测上的应用探讨

Discussion on the Application of MaxEnt Ecologic Niche Model in the Prediction of Acer rubrum Introduction Area

通过运用MaxEnt模型和地理信息系统(Arc-GIS)软件进行建模,对红花槭在中国的适生区域进行预测,同时分析确定影响其生长的主导气候因子。以此来说明MaxEnt模型在园林植物引种上的应用方法,表明其广阔的应用前景,为中国之后的园林引种提供一种新的思路。结果表明:1)Max Ent模型对红花槭潜在分布区的预测精度很高,AUC值为0.963;2)MaxEnt生态位模型在园林植物引种方面起到前瞻性的作用,可以较大程度避免盲目引种造成的损失,提高效率,具有较大的推广价值。

By using the Max Ent model and the Arc GIS software to build the model. With the model, the suitable area of Acer rubrum.in China was predicted and the dominant climatic factors affecting their growth were analyzed at the same time. Taking this as an example, the application of Max Ent model in the introduction of garden plants is illustrated, which shows its wide application prospect and provides a new idea for the future introduction of garden plants in China. The results show that： 1） The accuracy of Max Ent model for predicting the potential distribution of Acer rubrum. washigh, with AUC value at 0.963; 2） Max Ent niche model has a prospective role in the introduction of garden plants, which can largely avoid the losses caused by blind introduction and improve the efficiency, so it has a large promotional value.