长江经济带城市绿色经济绩效的溢出效应及其分解

Spillover effect and decomposition of green economic performance of the city in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

生态文明视域下提升绿色经济绩效已经成为经济发展的根本要求和必然选择。本文基于长江经济带108个城市2003—2013年数据,使用非期望产出-超效率SBM模型对绿色经济绩效进行了测度,并进行了分区域比较;依据经济空间权重构建多种空间计量模型实证检验了长江经济带绿色经济绩效的空间溢出效应;运用空间回归模型偏微分方法对绿色经济绩效的影响因素及其溢出效应进行了检验与分解。研究结论表明:长江经济带绿色经济绩效的空间分布并不均衡,具有显著的空间依赖和空间集聚特征。经济发展水平越高的地区绿色经济绩效越高,经济发展水平越低的地区绿色经济绩效越低,而且具有高者愈高、低者愈低的演变趋势。长江经济带绿色经济绩效存在显著的空间溢出效应。区域内环境污染与经济发展水平之间存在"U"型关系,即"环境库兹涅茨假说"并不存在。资源禀赋对区域内绿色经济绩效提升具有显著的正向影响效应。产业结构升级的经济示范效应有助于增强绿色经济绩效的区域间正向溢出。技术进步对区域内绿色经济绩效提升没有起到应有的促进作用,但对区域间绿色经济绩效提升却起到了显著的抑制作用。外商直接投资对区域内、区域间绿色经济绩效提升都具有显著的负向溢出效应,即区域内、区域间均存在"污染天堂假说"。长江经济带"共抓大保护,不搞大开发",充分发挥地区间、城市间经济增长的空间溢出效应,努力提升技术进步、产业结构、外商直接投资等因素对绿色经济绩效的正向影响作用,有助于促进长江经济带绿色经济绩效的协同提升。

The promotion of green econonfic performance in the perspective of ecological civilization has become the fundamental requirement and inevitable choice of eeononfie development. Based on the data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Eeononfie Belt for 2003 -2013, this paper measures the performance of green economy with the undesirable output super efficiency SBM model, and makes comparisons in different regions. Then, we test the spatial spillover effect of the green eeononfie performance of the Yangtze River Eeononfie Belt by building a variety of spatial econometric models based on the eeononfie space weight, and use the partial differential method of spatial regression model to test and decompose the ilffluenee factors and spillover effects of green economic performance. The conclusion of the study shows that, the spatial distribution of green economic performance in Yangtze River Economic Belt is not balaneeable, with significant spatial dependence and spatial agglomeration. We find that the higher the level of economic development, the higher the performance of green economy is, and the lower the level of economic development, the lower the green economic performance is. There is a significant spatial spillover effect on the green economic performance of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and there is a ＇ U ＇ relationship between the environmental pollution in the region and the level of economic development, which means that the environmental Kuznets hypothesis does not exist. What＇s more, resource endowment has a significantly positive effect on the promotion of green economic performance in the region. The economic demonstration effect of industrial structure upgrading helps to enhance the inter-regional spillover of green economic performance. Technological progress has not played a positive role in promoting the performance of green economy in the region, but it has played a significant role in improving the performance of inter regional green economy. FDI has a significantly negative effect on the promotion of regional and inter-regional spillover of green economic performance; therefore, ＇ pollution heaven hypothesis＇ really exists in both regions and regions. Moreover, Yangtze River Economic Belt should take measure of ＇ total protection and no more large development＇ , and give full play to the spatial spillover effect of economic growth in the region and the city, to promote technology progress, industrial structure, foreign direct investment and other positive effects on the performance of the green economy. Just in this way, we can promote the green economic performance in Yangtze River Economic Belt.