产业集聚与多维城镇化异质性

Industrial agglomeration and multidimensional urbanization heterogeneity

产业集聚作为城镇化发展的重要推动力,通过要素和资源集聚,为城镇化提供了产业支撑和经济保障。已有研究验证了产业集聚对城镇化的正向作用,然而,在多维城镇化异质性背景下,需要重新审视产业发展对城镇化的实际作用,明确产业集聚对城镇化的作用不仅是从"量"上实现常住人口城镇化和土地城镇化,更需要从"质"上实现户籍人口城镇化。因此,本文从人口城镇化、土地城镇化和户籍人口城镇化三个维度分析产业集聚对城镇化的影响。具体而言,本文首先分析了产业集聚对三个维度城镇化影响机制并提出三个理论假说:产业集聚对人口城镇化有正向影响;产业集聚对土地城镇化有正向影响;产业集聚对户籍人口城镇化有影响,但受到户籍制度的约束,其影响程度需要进一步验证。然后,本文采用2005—2014中国省际面板数据,用常住人口比重衡量人口城镇化,城市建成区面积占城区总面积比重衡量土地城镇化,非农户籍人口比重衡量户籍人口城镇化;以区位熵和经济密度衡量产业集聚度,分析产业集聚对三个维度城镇化影响。并进一步检验了产业集聚对户籍人口城镇化的滞后作用和中介机制。实证结果表明产业集聚对人口城镇化和土地城镇化有正向显著的影响,但对户籍人口城镇化影响不显著,其原因是户籍制度制约了产业集聚对农村城镇化转型的推动作用,产业集聚对户籍人口城镇化的作用有滞后性,产业集聚将通过土地城镇化和常住人口城镇化两大中介机制实现户籍人口城镇化。这一研究发现契合了中国城镇化进程中先推进城镇人口和土地要素的集聚,然后逐步向打破户籍制度制约、实现常住人口"市民化"的梯度城镇化发展战略。

As an important driving force for the development of urbanization, industrial agglomeration provides industrial support and eeononfie security for urbanization through the elements and resource agglomeration. The existing research has conffirmed the positive effect of industrial agglomeration on urbanization. However, under the background of multidimensional urbanization heterogeneity, it is necessary to re-exanfine the real effect of industrial development on urbanization, and clarify the role of industrial agglomeration in urbanization which is composed of ＇quantity＇ urbanization achieved by the resident population urbanization and land urbanization, and ＇ quality＇ urbanization achieved by the household registration population of urbanization. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effect of industrial agglomeration on urbanization from the three dimensions of urbanization, namely population urbanization, land urbanization and household registration urbanization. In particular, this paper analyzes the effect meehanisnl of industrial agglomeration on the three dimensions of urbanization and puts forward three theoretical hypotheses ： industrial agglomeration has a positive effect on population urbanization; industrial agglomeration has a positive effect on land urbanization; industrial agglomeration has an effect on household registration urbanization, but because of the constraints of the household registration system, the extent of its effect needs to be further verified. By using the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014, this paper measures the population urbanization with the proportion of the resident population, measures land urbanization with the proportion of the urban built-up area in total urban land area, measures the household registration urbanization with the proportion of the non-farm household population, and measures the industrial agglomeration with the economic density and quotient of location, to analyze the effect of industrial agglomeration on the three dimensions of urbanization. In addition this paper tests the lagging effect and intermediary mechanism of industrial agglomeration on household registration urbanization. The results show that the industrial agglomeration has a significantly positive effect on the population urbanization and the land urbanization, but its effect on the household registration urbanization is not significant. The reason is that the household registration system limits the industrial agglomeration which can promote the urbanization. Industrial agglomeration has a lagging effect on the household registration urbanization. Industrial agglomeration will realize the household registration urbanization through the two major intermediary mechanisms including land urbanization and population urbanization. This study matches the gradient urbanization development strategy in China, namely promoting the agglomeration of urban population and land elements, then gradually breaking the household registration system constraints, and achieving the equal resident welfare for the immigrants.