沙特阿美上市进展及前景分析

Saudi Aramco's IPO progress and its prospect

沙特阿拉伯政府宣布沙特阿美即将上市引发全球关注。沙特阿美公开上市是沙特阿拉伯"2030年愿景"计划的重要组成部分,但目前仍面临大量不确定因素。国际和国内组合公开上市是沙特阿美上市最可能的方式,但沙特阿拉伯政府依然有其他选项:向西方和亚洲公司私募发行,并与国内上市相结合;仅在国内上市;向中国国有企业私募发行,并在沙特阿拉伯国内上市。对沙特阿美上市设置3种情景进行分析:1)将在2018年成功首次公开发行股票,业务效果符合政府设定的目标;2)推迟首次公开发行股票,收益低于预期;3)未能公开上市发行股票。沙特阿美上市将为中国公司参与该国的油气业务提供难得的契机,建议中国公司审时度势,抓住机遇,积极参与沙特阿拉伯油气领域合作。

The Saudi government announced that Saudi Aramco is about to launch the Initial Public Offering （IPO）, which attracted the global eyes. Sandi Aramco＇s IPO is an important component of Saudi＇s Vision 2030 Program but there are still plenty of uncertainties. The portfolio of intemational and domestic public listing may be the most likely way for Saudi Aramco, but the Saudi government still has other options including private offering oriented to the westem and Asian companies plus domestic listing, domestic listing only, and private offering oriented to the Chinese state-owned enterprises plus domestic listing. Three scenarios are developed regarding Saudi Aramco＇s listing options： 1） Saudi Aramco will successfully issue its stocks for the first time in 2018, and the earnings conform to the initial goals set by the Saudi government; 2） Saudi Aramco will delay its initial public offering with earning less than expected; 3） Sandi Aramco will fail to issue its stocks. The planned IPO of Saudi Aramco offered a precious opportunity for Chinese companies to participate the oil and gas business in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is suggested that Chinese companies should review the situation and seize opportunity to play an active part in the oil and gas cooperation with Saudi Arabia.