摘要
运用决策树模型进行勘探项目经济评价的做法在油气行业已非常普遍。评价指标除了目前常用的期望货币价值(EMV)外,可进一步结合投资盈利率(PIR)、增量价值(VC)等其他补充价值评估指标,从而能够更加充分地论证勘探项目的经济可行性,以更好满足低油价下油气公司的投资盈利率要求,有效提升投资组合的整体质量。由于评价指标与决策树方法本身仍存在一定的局限性,在实际应用中,为避免方案路径的决策偏差,应加强经济评价人员与技术工程师之间的沟通,确保决策树模型的每一构建步骤、每一参数输入环节都考虑周全,科学合理。
It has been a common practice to apply Decision Tree model in exploration project economic evaluation in oil ＆ gas industry. By incorporating supplementary indicators like profit investment ratio （PIR） and value creation （VC） in addition to the indicator expected monetary value （EMV） which is frequently used nowadays, the economic viability of exploration project can be further demonstrated, the company＇s investment profitability requirement under current low-price situations can be better met, and the overall quality of asset portfolio can be effectively improved. Due to certain limitations of the evaluation indexes and the Decision Tree, the communication between economists and technical engineers should be enhanced, and each step of Decision Tree model construction and parameter input should be considered thoroughly, scientifically and rationally, so as to avoid deviation of decision making path in practice.
作者
吴芳妹
WU Fangmei(SINOPEC International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporatio)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2018年第4期90-97,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
决策树模型
勘探项目
经济评价
期望货币价值
投资盈利率
信息价值
增量价值
Decision Tree model
exploration project
economic evaluation
expected monetary value
profit investment ratio
information value
value creation
