国际石油合同下的经济极限产量算法研究

Research on economic limit calculation methods under international petroleum contracts

以石油资源管理体系(PRMS)准则为基础,探讨了储量评估中经济极限年的成本预测方法,制定了适用于国际复杂财税情况下的经济极限年计算公式。以哈萨克斯坦财税为实例,计算了经济极限产量,考虑到经济极限产量随着油价成本等因素动态变化,引入停产线(COP)概念,通过COP曲线的计算,综合考虑油价和成本预测,以及随产量、油价变动而变动的生产税费,从而直观快速地得到经济极限年。

With the principle of petroleum resources management system （PRMS） as the foundation, the paper discusses the method of cost forecast for the economic limit years in the reserve evaluation, forms the formula for calculating the economic limit year applicable to complex international fiscal and taxation conditions. Taking Kazakhstan＇s fiscal tax as an example, it calculates the economic production limit, introduces the concept of COP curve considering the economic limit output changing with the factors such as the oil price. Through the calculation of the COP curve, comprehensive consideration ofoil price and cost prediction, as well as the production taxes that fluctuate with the oil production and oil prices, the economic limit year will be got directly and quickly.