中国普惠金融发展的影响因素及其收敛性——基于中国省级面板数据检验

Research on Influencing Factors and Convergence of Inclusive Financial Development in China: Based on Interprovincial Panel Data of China

发展普惠金融已被纳入到"十三五"规划的重要战略目标。选择2005年~2015年省级面板数据,探讨普惠金融发展的影响因素及其收敛性特征,结果发现:从全国来看,经济发展、政府干预和人力资本质量等因素对普惠金融发展存在显著的促进作用,而市场化和信息化等因素却对其存在显著的抑制作用;分地区来看,这些因素同样对普惠金融发展存在较为显著的差异性影响;东部、中部和西部地区的普惠金融发展存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,说明各地区普惠金融发展的差距会随着时间的推移而逐渐缩小,并且都收敛于各自的稳定水平。

The development of inclusive finance has been one of the important strategic objectives of the 13 th Five-Year Plan. Based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015,this paper analyzes the influencing factors and convergence of inclusive finance development. The results indicate that from a national perspective,factors such as economic development,government intervention and human capital quality play significant roles in promoting the development of inclusive finance,while marketization and informatization have a significant inhibitory effect on it; From a regional perspective,these factors also have significant different effects on the development of inclusive finance; There exist absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the development of inclusive finance in the Eastern,Central and Western regions of China,which shows that the gap of inclusive financial development in various regions will gradually narrow over time,and converge to their respective stable levels.