基于生物多样性的流感暴发研究

Research on Influenza Epidemics Based on Biodiversity

为揭示流感病毒在环境中的生存能力,本文提出了一种基于评价流感病毒的生物多样性指标,研究流感病毒大流行的规律。基于1902-2016年的99 861条流感病毒的血凝素蛋白质序列,提取40维特征向量,并采用层次聚类方法获取流感病毒每一年的最优聚类数。进而,基于生物多样性的评价指标,计算出每一年的种群熵值,以表达流感病毒的生物多样性和种群熵变化率,从而衡量流感病毒的变异速率。结合历史数据,通过种群熵评价流感病毒的生物多样性能够与已发生的流感暴发时间很好吻合。以上研究可为流感病毒的暴发预测提供依据。

In order to study the laws of influenza epidemics, a new method was proposed for revealing the a- bility of influenza virus to survive in its environment and estimating the virus biodiversity. Based on 99 861 sequences of hemagglutinin proteins worldwide from 1902 to 2016, cluster analysis was adopted to obtain the number of optimal structural clustering by applying 40-dimensional feature vectors of the sequences and constructing hierarchical clusters of each year＇s influenza viruses. Furthermore, the population entropy was calculated for expressing biodiversity based on the indices for biodiversity assessment. Through analysis of the historical data, the biodiversity evaluation by using population entropy proved entirely matching with the time of influenza epidemics. Hence, this method can provide the basis for predicting influenza epidemics.