老龄化背景下城乡居民食物消费模式的量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of the Food Consumption Pattern of Urban and Rural Residents in the Background of Aging

本文釆用1997-2011年中国居民健康与营养调查项目(CHNS)数据量化分析不同年龄阶段居民的食物消费模式。针对现有研究忽视群体内部个体差异的不足,细化年龄变量构建计量模型分别刻画了不同年龄阶段我国居民的食物消费模式,并进一步分析未来城乡食物消费差距的变化。研究同时考虑了年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应后发现:伴随年龄增加,笼统地认为食物消费下降的观念需要修正;城乡消费差距在基本生活副食上并未扩大,相反,营养副食消费差距在老年阶段有所扩大,且在高龄阶段达到最大;农村老人尤其是高龄老人在营养副食和部分基本副食消费上明显下降。研究认为,应从政策层面有针对性地加大对特定年龄人群的扶助力度;同时未来食品产业规划应充分考虑人口结构变动因素的影响。

Based on Individuals survey date from China Health and Nutrition Survey （CHNS） in 1997-2011, this paper quantifies and estimates food consumption patter by age in both urban and rural China. According to the shortcomings of the existing research neglected the individual differences in the internal of the group, we refine the age variables to construct econometric model depicts food consumption pattern of residents in different age in our country, and further analyze the change of food consumption gap between urban and rural areas in the future.The study also takes into account the age effect, period effect and cohort effect, and finds that the idea of decreasing food consumption in general should be revised as the age increases. The result shows that grains and basic staple consumption reduced. On the contrary, nutrition non-staple food does not reduce or even increase. This phenomenon is more obvious in cities. The gap of nutrition between urban and rural enhances and gets the highest in the year-old man. It is necessary to strengthen policy support to a certain groups of the elderly. Policy makers should pay more attention to the impact of demographic changes when they make decision on planning public resources allocation.