保险发展与实体经济增长的联动性研究——基于中日两国的对比分析

A Study on The Linkage between Insurance Development and Real Economic Growth——Based on The Comparative Analysis of China and Japan

保险业与实体经济增长的关系备受学术界关注。在分析保险发展促进经济增长传导机制的基础上,测度保险发展水平,以中日两国对比分析为切入点进行实证检验。研究结果显示,保险发展处于初期及成长期的经济体,其保险发展水平与经济增长之间并不存在显著的联动性;保险发展处于成熟期的经济体,其保险发展水平对经济增长具有显著的积极影响。与此同时,经济增长对保险发展水平具有积极的正向影响,保险市场发达的经济体,其促进作用在较短时间具有显著效果;而对于保险市场欠发达的经济体,这种影响的周期会较长。为此,我国保险业必须服务宏观经济发展大局,在"一带一路"建设、供给侧结构性改革和脱贫攻坚等方面充分发挥稳定器和助推器作用。

The relationship between the insurance industry and the real economy growth has drawn much attention from academia. Based on the analysis of the conduction mechanism of insurance development which may promote economic growth, an empirical study is conducted in this paper to measures the level of insurance development based on the comparative analysis of China and Japan. The result shows that there is no significant linkage between the level of insurance development and economic growth when the insurance development of those economies is still in its infancy and growth stage. On the contrary, the level of insurance development has a significantly positive impact on economic growth when the Insurance development of these economies is in a mature stage. In the meantime, economic growth has a positive impact on the level of insurance development. There is a significantly promoting effect in a relatively short period of time if the insurance market of these economies is well developed; there is longer reaction period if the market insurance of those economies is developed badly. Therefore, the insurance industry in our country must serve the overall macro-economic development and give full play to its roles as a stabilizer and a booster in the construction of the ＂Belt and Road＂, structural reform on the supply side, and tackling poverty.