基于产业关联集聚模式的东北城市规模效应研究

Study on The Scale Effect of Northeastern Cities Based on Industrial Agglomeration Model

以服务业和制造业关联集聚模式为视角,采用中间产品模型实证检验分析东北地区地级市发展的规模效应。计量估计结果显示:东北地区人口集聚与城市人均产出存在倒U型曲线关系,且低于最优人口规模的集聚损失要大于超过最优人口规模的集聚损失;城市服务业和制造业结构与人口规模扩张对产出效率的作用机制存在协同效应,城市产业结构优化升级带来的规模收益存在人口规模的最低门槛要求,小城市过高的服务业与制造业比会对产出收益造成损失。东北地区大部分地级市的实际人口规模仍然小于最优规模且低于产业调整收益的最低门槛,因此大城市应进一步推动服务业集聚发展和城市功能的强化,中小城市在推动人口集聚的同时应注重当地制造业的集聚发展。

From the perspective of the service-industry relational agglomeration model, the intermediate product model is used to empirically examine the scale effect of the development of prefecture-level cities in the Northeast China. The estimation result shows that there is an inverse U-shaped curve relationship between the population aggregation and urban per capita output in the Northeast China. The agglomeration loss below the optimal popula- tion size is greater than the agglomeration loss over the optimal population size; the urban service industry-manu- facturing structure and population scale expansion have a synergistic effect on the functional mechanism of output efficiency. There is a minimum requirement of population size for the scale benefits brought by the optimization and upgrading of urban industrial structure. The excessive proportion of service industry-manufacturing of small cities could cause loss of output income. The actual population size of most prefecture-level cities in Northeast China is still smaller than the optimal size and lower than the minimum requirement for industrial adjustment income. Therefore, it is necessary for the big cities to further promote the development of service industries and urban functions. Small- and medium-sized cities should promote population agglomeration. Meanwhile, the attention should be paid to the development of agglomeration of local manufacturing industries.