浒苔绿潮灾害经济损失评估模型初探

Exploratory study on economic losses assessment model of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms

浒苔绿潮灾害已在我国黄海海域连续暴发10年,对沿岸社会经济和生态环境造成了极大损失,严重制约了地区经济的可持续发展,但对减灾具有现实意义的绿潮灾害经济损失评估研究还尚属空白,已不能满足浒苔绿潮防灾减灾的实际需求。本文在归纳总结浒苔绿潮灾害致灾机制的基础上,提出了浒苔绿潮灾害的灾害链,其后以业务化应用为出发点和归宿,初步构建了浒苔绿潮灾害经济损失评估指标体系,并探索性的建立养殖业损失、旅游业损失、机会成本损失和生态损失的浒苔绿潮灾害经济损失评估模型,期望促进绿潮灾害损失评估工作尽早实现科学化、标准化和系统化。

Enteromorphaprolifera blooms that continuously taken place in the Yellow Sea for 10 years have caused great destruction to economy and environment of the afflicted coast zones. However, no report is available about economic losses assessment of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms which are unable to meet the actual demands of disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper put forward the disaster chain of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms based on induction and analysis to publish articles of disaster mechanism. Thereafter, regard operational application as the springboard and the final goal, economic losses assessment index system that contained 4 first-level indicators and 11 secondary counterparts was initially established. Finally,the specific formulas for economic losses assessment of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms were exploratory proposed, including marine aquaculture economic losses, coastal tourism economic losses, opportunity cost losses and ecological losses. We proposed the economic losses assessment model of Enteromorphaprolifera blooms aims to help the government to cope with the green tides more scientific, normative and effective.