中国人口年龄结构如何影响了地区碳排放?——基于动态空间STIRPAT模型的分析

How Does China's Population Age Structure Affect Regional Carbon Emissions?An Analysis Based on Dynamic Spatial STIRPAT Model

在扩展STIRPAT模型基础上,考虑地区碳排放影响的空间相关性和时间相关性的特征,构建动态空间STIRPAT模型,并利用2004—2015年的中国省级面板数据进行实证检验。实证结果表明,从全国层面来看,少儿人口比例与碳排放存在负相关关系,劳动年龄人口和老年人口比例与碳排放存在正相关关系。从分地区层面来看,东、中、西部人口年龄结构及其变化对碳排放的影响略有不同,东部地区老年人口比重上升并未产生抑制碳排放增长的作用,说明东部地区减排形势严峻,而西部地区的人口老龄化已经达到了一定的程度,对碳排放具有显著的抑制作用,相比之下,中部地区的碳排放受人口老龄化影响的显著性则比西部低。

This paper constructs a dynamic spatial STIRPAT model and empirically tests the panel data of China for2004—2015 years.On the basis of the extended STIRPAT model,the spatial correlation and temporal correlation of regional carbon emissions are considered.The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation betw een the proportion of children’s population and carbon emissions from the national level,and there is a positive correlation between the proportion of working age population and the elderly population and carbon emissions.From the regional level,the influence of the age structure of the East,middle and West on carbon emissions is slightly different.Considering the aging population as the most important demographic characteristics of China in the future,the deepening of population aging in the eastern region will promote the generation of carbon emissions,indicating that the situation of emission reduction in the eastern region is grim.The population aging in the western region has reached a certain extent,and has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.In contrast,the carbon emissions in the central region are significantly lower than those in the west.